Called Fresh

Late Sunday evening, I got on a rare video call with three of my school friends. We have been friends since we were 12, but we were never a group – and certainly not a group that does group calls. Then two of us had kids. And now we send each other baby videos and get on video calls so that we can see the kids “in the wild”.

Yesterday’s call was to see my friends’ baby – who is 10 days old now. I was really happy for him. I had spoken to him on the day of the birth, celebrated with all the oohs and aahs, and even messaged his mother to get more pictures.

Then we moved on to the 3 month old baby and her cute adventures.

And then the big news from my third friend – no kids, but they just bought a house. A half a million dollar house.

I didn’t have any news to share.

In fact, it feels like I have never had any news to share. Yes, I’ve changed jobs. But I’ve changed jobs so frequently that it really doesn’t feel like news any more. Yes, I’ve moved cities, but the moves have always been temporary. I’ve never committed to anything permanent. Is there something wrong with me?

No. This is a classic TYPE 1 error.

Type 1 errors are seeing patterns where none exist. To see correlation and attribute it to causality.

I don’t have kids, cause I’m not that crazy about kids. I have never once sought the company of kids. I have nephews and nieces, but I’m not close to any. I have friends who have kids, but I’ve never taken an interest in their kid’s lives. It will be crazy to start caring about kids by having my own. That’s just madness.

I don’t have a house, cause it would be the worst way to spend money for me. I like to move around. In fact, the happiest I’ve ever been was when my wife and I spent six months as digital nomads, traveling through six countries. Spending a buttloads of cash – I don’t have – on a thing that can be enjoyed only by staying in one place, sounds like a nightmare.

And… actually… I have made long term commitments. My marriage, for one. And that’s turned out pretty good.

So, yes, its easy to fall prey to Type 1 errors, especially when they come with a lot of recency bias and FOMO.

But not today.